PROFESSION

Medical schools on target to reach enrollment goals

But with the growth in residency slots lagging behind, the United States will be short 70,000 physicians by 2025.

By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. June 23/30, 2008.

Expansion of first-year enrollment at allopathic medical schools appears on pace to meet the Assn. of American Medical Colleges' 2006 recommendation of 30% growth by 2015. However, new AAMC projections suggest the planned expansions will ease, but not completely erase, an anticipated physician shortfall.

Speaking at the AAMC's 2008 physician work force research conference in May, Edward S. Salsberg, director of the AAMC's Center for Workforce Studies, said preliminary data suggest a shortage of 70,000 physicians by 2025. The estimates were based on the organization's recently released 2007 medical school expansion survey.

Boosting supply
See related content
E-mail - Print - Write a letter

"The bottom line is, even with graduate medical education expansion, we'll have more demand than supply of physicians [by 2025]," Salsberg said.

The AAMC survey of allopathic medical schools found the institutions plan to increase first-year enrollment 21% or 3,400 students by 2012, for a total of 19,909 students in the 2012 entering class. Combined with osteopathic medical school expansions, the number of first-year medical students will go up 28%or 5,569 students by 2012, Salsberg said.

Two years ago, the AAMC urged its members to expand their 2002 enrollment numbers by 30%, for a net increase of 4,946 medical students by 2015.

Salsberg now projects that allopathic medical schools will reach the 30% growth mark a year later, in 2016. The latest survey asked AAMC members their enrollment plans for the next five years.

Salsberg noted that medical schools are only part of the work force pipeline, and that the AAMC has recommended the number of residency slots be expanded to meet medical enrollment increases.

The number of first-year residency positions has grown only 4% over the past 10 years. Without residency slots increasing at the same rate as school seats, the larger U.S. classes will end up replacing international medical graduates in the residency pool, not expanding the total number of physicians, Salsberg said.

Even if the number of first-year residents expands 30%, the U.S. would still be short 70,000 doctor by 2025, he said. Previous estimates projected the U.S. would be short 65,000 to 200,000 physicians by 2020.