PROFESSIONFederal advisory group predicts physician shortage loomingCouncil on Graduate Medical Education reverses stance, calls for 15% increase in medical school graduates.By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. Nov. 3, 2003. In a dramatic change in policy recommendations, the Council on Graduate Medical Education has cast aside a forecast of a surplus of physicians that it has held since the mid-1980s and now backs a prediction of a shortage. Carl Getto, MD, chair of COGME and senior vice president for medical affairs for the University of Wisconsin Hospitals and Clinics, said the council's change in perspective was in response to mounting evidence from physician work-force experts and physician recruitment firms. "Where we are now is a result of two years of analyzing changes," Dr. Getto said. "[Health policy expert] Buz Cooper and others have been talking of work-force shortage. The AAMC [Assn. of American Medical Colleges] has been asking the same work-force questions. This is not a surprise." Among the trends: younger physicians wanting to work fewer hours; an aging population that requires more care; and an increased demand for specialists' services combined with less-restrictive managed care models. COGME commissioned Ed Salsberg, executive director of the Center for Health Workforce Studies at the State University of New York in Albany, to analyze the changing physician work-force environment. COGME is adopting Salsberg's report, which calls for an increase of 3,000 U.S. medical graduates by 2015, a corresponding expansion in the number of resident positions and a change in the distribution of residency positions to more closely mirror market demand. Salsberg anticipates a shortage of 85,000 physicians by 2020. [...]Full text of AMNews content is available to AMA members and paid subscribers.
Copyright 2003 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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