We have more students. Now what?

Medical schools are expanding in hopes of meeting the future demand for physicians. But will the U.S. government step up residency funding?

By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. Oct. 22/29, 2007.

The largest medical school expansion since the 1970s is taking place, fueled by growing alarm that not enough new physicians are graduating each year to keep up with the needs of a surging U.S. population.

With some work force experts estimating that by 2020 the country will need anywhere from 85,000 to 200,000 more physicians than the existing pipeline can produce, nearly all of the nation's 149 medical schools have increased enrollment or are considering it. Among allopathic medical schools, at least 10 new ones are under discussion, eight existing schools have added new campuses and five new schools are in the process of opening. Osteopathic medical schools have added 10 new campuses since 2003.

One health policy watcher estimates that the public will spend $3 billion to $5 billion annually to cover the expansion. That's on top of private donations in the hundreds of millions.

Aware that generations of Americans' health is at stake, medical leaders and health policymakers are debating how to expand the physician work force. They're asking how the work force should be structured, whether there should be an overarching national policy or guideline to shape growth, and what any policy should look like.

So far, medical schools seem to be expanding in areas experiencing some of the largest population booms, said Edward Salsberg, director of the Assn. of American Medical Colleges' Center for Workforce Studies. This would be the southern belt of the United States, including California, Florida and Texas, he said.