Medical schools increase enrollment to meet future demand

But physician shortage fears remain.

By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. May 15, 2006.

Consensus is growing that a physician shortage lies in the near future, though questions remain over how large it will be and how to best address it. Medical educators are taking shortage predictions seriously and are ramping up class sizes.

Edward Salsberg, director of the Assn. of American Medical Colleges Center for Workforce Studies, said, "We really need to see this increase in U.S. production now in order to be prepared for the likely future demand for services."

Final data from a 2005 survey by the AAMC Center for Workforce Studies show that allopathic medical schools plan to add 1,400 to 2,000 first-year medical students by 2015-16, a 9% to 12% increase over the entering class in 2002-03. Add in osteopathic expansion of 2,000 to 2,500 more students, and a total of 3,400 to 4,500 additional first-year medical students could be in the 2015-16 pipeline.

According to the AAMC, 65 allopathic schools have increased enrollment since 2000, or have plans to do so. Allopathic schools in states that have experienced rapid population growth are the most likely to expand, particularly in the South and West. Also, the majority of increases appear to be coming from public institutions and at community-based schools rather than research-intensive programs. Eleven schools reported they would focus on increasing minority enrollment and enrollment of those wanting to practice in underserved areas. The AAMC anticipates that five new allopathic schools out of a possible 15 under consideration will likely come to fruition between 2007-08 and 2015-16.