Past views of the future: The tricky art of medical forecasting

Predictions can prompt action that prevents a particular future from coming true or can become a goal or even a self-fulfilling prophesy. Regardless, the future rarely unfolds as planned.

By Victoria Stagg Elliott, AMNews staff. Aug. 1, 2005.

To forecast what is yet to come. To advance the art of prediction. These are concepts that consistently capture the imagination of both experts and popular culture.

Media headlines often detail such expectations and their focus is frequently health-related -- whether it involves long-term projections of public health indicators, emerging health risks or medical technologies on the horizon.

"People like to hear about the future," said Peter Bishop, PhD, chair of the masters program in studies of the future at the University of Houston-Clear Lake. "The consideration of the future as an intellectual pursuit and a thing to talk about actually has become more common and more fashionable for people in all walks of life."

But while predictions are common, analysis of what actually happened -- applying accountability -- is less so. What follows are five medicine-related predictions made in the past 40 years. Each offers a specific view of how the present day could have turned out, as well as what actually happened.

In February 1962, Reader's Digest predicted that by 2002, "Doctors will spend more time preventing disease than curing it."

How on target was this soothsaying? Experts say that medicine, in many respects, has moved in this general direction. In 1962, the annual physical was strictly the purview of the rich. Insurance rarely covered preventive services. And many screening tests common today didn't exist.