HEALTH & SCIENCE

Worries about flu shot demand -- and supply

Uncertainty abounds as experts are concerned that patients who stepped aside last year during the shortage will not come back.

By Victoria Stagg Elliott, AMNews staff. June 6, 2005.

The 82-year-old retired physician had heart disease and diabetes, but he was insistent. He did not want a flu shot last year.

"He thought there were others who were at higher risk," said Robert Hopkins, MD, associate professor of internal medicine and pediatrics at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock. "He wanted his shot to go to them, or to his children or grandchildren first."

But before the end of the season, the doctor was convinced of the importance of getting vaccinated. He did so despite the acute shortage triggered when Chiron Corp. had contamination problems that prevented it from fulfilling its share of vaccine production -- nearly half of the total expected in the United States.

Many others who normally move to the front of the line deferred their shots. But they never returned for them, even after it became clear that some areas of the country had more than enough vaccine for all who wanted or needed it. The question now: Will they ever come back?

According to several presentations at the annual National Influenza Vaccine Summit convened in May by the American Medical Association and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Chicago, physicians, public health officials and influenza vaccine supply experts are concerned that, after such a significant supply disruption, those who took a pass will now be lost for good.

There are multiple reasons why. These patients might not have become ill, leading them to believe they don't really need a flu shot after all. Or last season's message that flu shots be reserved for those most in need could stick beyond its relevance.

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