Flu vaccine forecast raises several possible outcomes

Public health officials are hoping for a best-case scenario that includes plenty of vaccine to go around.

By Susan J. Landers, AMNews staff. April 18, 2005.

Washington -- Three vaccine scenarios are being eyed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the upcoming flu season: rain, shine or hurricane.

A "rainy" scenario, the one the agency considers realistic, would mimic last season's scattered storms of accessibility. The supply would be about 60 million doses of injectable flu vaccine and 3 million doses of nasal vaccine, said Lance E. Rodewald, MD, director of the CDC's Immunization Services Division, speaking during last month's 39th National Immunization Conference in Washington, D.C. The conference, sponsored by the CDC, brought officials together to assess the most recent flu season and look to the upcoming one.

Public health officials also considered the possibility of a sunnier forecast for the 2005-2006 flu season -- one that includes plenty of vaccine for all.

But at the same time, they also must not overlook the flu vaccine equivalent of a devastating hurricane. If this forecast pans out, physicians would have less vaccine to offer than last time around, said Dr. Rodewald.

About 43% of adults considered to be in high-priority categories for vaccination received shots last season, compared with nearly 48% the previous season, said Jeanne Santoli, MD, deputy director for CDC's Immunization Sciences Division. That fairly high vaccination rate, despite the loss of nearly half of the expected supply of vaccine, occurred because more than 16 million healthy adults deferred immunization, she said.