Physician shortage? Push is on for more medical students

But some question whether there really will be a future shortfall of doctors.

By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. March 14, 2005.

The Assn. of American Medical Colleges is calling for the nation's allopathic medical schools to boost their enrollment 15% over the next decade. If every institution answers that challenge, there will be an additional 2,500 medical school graduates annually to offset a projected physician shortage.

AAMC officials said schools need to start planning now to prevent the shortages that at least two studies have predicted. One forecast, by Richard Cooper, MD, director of the Medical College of Wisconsin's Health Policy Institute, expects a shortage of 200,000 physicians by 2020. Another study by Ed Salsberg, for the Council of Graduate Medical Education, projects an 85,000-physician shortfall by 2020.

Numerous medical specialty groups -- including the American College of Cardiology, the American Geriatrics Society and the American Society of Anesthesiologists -- announced that they are in or on the cusp of shortages.

"The AAMC's new position responds to mounting evidence that the demand for physicians will outstrip the supply in future years," said Jordan J. Cohen, MD, AAMC president.

The AAMC, which formed its own Center for Workforce Studies, said the shortage is being driven by population growth, aging baby boomers, physician retirements and younger doctors demanding to work fewer hours. The AAMC's call marks the first time since the 1960s and 1970s that medical schools nationwide have been asked to boost enrollment.

The new proposed enrollment increase translates to a 13.4% total increase in the number of medical school graduates. Today, the nation's medical schools graduate 18,600 students each year -- 16,000 from allopathic medical schools and 2,600 from osteopathic schools.