Plans under way for coping with potential flu pandemic

A national draft plan is expected to be ready for public comment in the coming weeks.

By Susan J. Landers, AMNews staff. July 26, 2004.

Washington -- In the event of the next dreaded pandemic, should it be young adults who first roll up their sleeves to be vaccinated? After all, mortality was highest among 20- to 50-year-olds when the 1918 Spanish influenza hit.

Or should the oldest and youngest continue to have priority, as they do now, during annual flu seasons? Ninety percent of deaths occur annually among those older than 65 and there is also a high rate of hospitalization among young children.

In the event of a pandemic, such decisions will be primary issues. After all, it is not known how long it might take to develop an effective vaccine and, therefore, who should be first in line to receive it. And, although there would be a push to manufacture enough of the appropriate flu vaccine for everyone, initial supplies would likely be less than adequate.

Thus, planning for a deadly pandemic is something of a necessary leap into the unknown. A group of physicians, vaccine manufacturers, bioterrorism experts and epidemiologists recently gathered at the National Academies of Science in Washington, D.C., to advance the process by assessing the nation's prevention and response capabilities.

Taking a look at the toll of sickness and death of the 1918, 1957 and 1968 pandemics, Lone Simonsen, PhD, an epidemiologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' Office of Global Affairs, suggested that young adults be considered a high priority group for vaccination.