More voices join debate on physician work force

Most studies forecast an imminent shortage, but one new study disagrees.

By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. May 3, 2004.

At least two new studies support the position, now generally held by physician work force experts, that the United States will face a physician shortage in the next decade. The debate has heated up since October 2003, when the Council on Graduate Medical Education, a federal advisory group, endorsed a study that forecast a shortage of physicians by 2020, a reversal of past policy.

Most recently, a report from Merritt, Hawkins & Associates, a physician recruiting firm, says physicians are getting out of medicine at such a rapid pace that the net reduction in physicians soon will make it more difficult for patients to access care.

The report, "Survey of Physicians 50 to 65 Years Old," states that some 51% of respondents said they planned to make a change in their practices in the next one to three years that would reduce the number of patients they treat or take them out of patient care entirely.

"Many of those physicians in the 50-55 and 56-60 age groups, who are typically at the peak of their practices in terms of number of patients seen, will seek alternatives to patient care practice," the study said. "Should these peak-practice physicians retire, find work outside of patient care or significantly reduce their workloads, millions of patient visits per year will have to be absorbed by other physicians."

Of those planning to make a change, 40% said rising medical liability insurance rates were a motivating factor.

Specialty groups are also calling attention to shortages in their ranks. The Critical Care Workforce Partnership, made up of the American College of Chest Physicians, the American Assn. Of Critical-Care Nurses, the American Thoracic Society and the Society of Critical Care Medicine, is predicting a crisis in critical care services.