Pediatrician supply could outstrip demand

With their population growing faster than that of their patients, these physicians may need to reshape their practices.

By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. April 5, 2004.

Nancy Tofil, MD, a pediatric critical care resident at the University of Alabama, Birmingham, says the pediatricians graduating from UAB favor the city's thriving suburbs, but finding a job there can be tough.

Alison Volpe Holmes, MD, a third-year pediatric resident in North Carolina, said the residents willing to move to Greensboro are the first to find jobs, while those wanting to stay in or near Chapel Hill or Raleigh face a longer search.

"Most of my class went straight into practice," she said. "Everybody found what they wanted, but it took longer. It seems if you are willing to go a little outside of the Chapel Hill area, it's easier to find a job."

What these young pediatricians are experiencing may be signals that the pediatric work force is outpacing its patient base, according to Scott Shipman, MD, MPH, assistant professor of pediatrics at Oregon Health & Science University School of Medicine. Dr. Shipman predicts a massive expansion of the pediatric work force, with the number of full-time equivalent pediatricians soaring 58% higher in 2020 than in 2000, while the population of children will go up only 9.3%.

In the March 3 Pediatrics, Dr. Shipman and co-authors of "The General Pediatrician: Projecting Future Workforce Supply and Requirements," write that there will be 1,438 children for every FTE pediatrician in 2020, a number they cite as barely enough to maintain a full-time practice. In 2000, he estimates there was one pediatrician for every 2,040 kids.