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Flu shot demand likely to increase next fall

Doctors believe that patients will recall this year's experience and be more eager than ever to get their vaccine next time around.

By Victoria Stagg Elliott, amednews staff. Feb. 9, 2004.

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David Reed, MD, a family physician in Wray, Colo., population 2,000, will be ordering 1,500 doses of flu vaccine for next season. Usually, he orders around a thousand, but he is convinced that next year he will not be stuck with leftovers -- mainly because he expects his patients to remember this year's brutal flu season. And if they don't, he will give them a gentle nudge.

"We don't want to run out like we did this year, and I think we'll use it," he said. "We'll just encourage people to get it."

Dr. Reed is not alone. Many doctors around the country say they and their patients have an increased interest in the flu shot despite signs that this season's vaccine may not have been as effective as in most years, according to a paper in the Jan. 16 issue of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Each year, the flu virus strains selected for inclusion in the vaccine are chosen by the Food and Drug Administration in March in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. The selection is based on a combination of known variants in circulation and the feasibility of culturing these strains. As a result, the mix is sometimes just a bit off.

"The problem is we're using fairly old technology and you need a lot of lead time," said Walter Orenstein, MD, special adviser to the director of the CDC's National Immunization Program. About this year's experience: "While there was some suggestion that Fujian [strain] was emerging, there was concern that companies would not be able to make a vaccine in time."