Physician shortage predicted to spread

The AMA becomes the latest of many expressing concern that there might not be enough physicians to go around, now or in the future.

By Victoria Stagg Elliott, AMNews staff. Jan. 5, 2004.

Honolulu -- The American Medical Association acknowledged a physician shortage in some areas of the country and some specialties, according to policy adopted at its Interim Meeting last month.

"We don't know what the correct mix is, and what we need is data to determine what the best policy is," said AMA president-elect John C. Nelson, MD, MPH. "The bottom line is we want to make sure that patients have access to physicians that they need."

The AMA is the latest organization to shift official policy from recognizing a surplus of physicians to realizing that numerous factors may be contributing to an imminent physician shortfall.

Several specialty societies are considering the issue, and the government-appointed Council on Graduate Medical Education reversed its position in November 2003 and called for an expansion of medical school spaces and residency slots. U.S. medical schools have been churning out 15,000 to 16,000 doctors a year since 1980, according to the Dept. of Health and Human Services, but census data show the population has increased 24%, from more than 226 million to more than 281 million people.

Experts say a growing population that is older and needs more medical care is one of many factors converging to create a potential crisis. Also, a greater desire to balance work and family life means that many doctors are opting to work part-time or on a temporary basis.