Medical society survey forecasts doctor shortage

One in three doctors in San Diego plans to close shop in three to five years.

By Myrle Croasdale, AMNews staff. Feb. 3, 2003.

Another study has joined the chorus of voices proclaiming an impending national physician shortage. A survey by the San Diego County Medical Society found 35% of area doctors plan to stop practicing in the next three to five years.

The survey, which the county society says is a sign of the times for the country, also revealed that one-third of doctors who are staying plan to cut their patient care hours.

Seventy-one percent of respondents said recruiting new doctors to the area was difficult. Sixty-four percent said the county is undergoing a physician shortage.

Because San Diego was one of the first cities to buy into the concept of HMOs, managed care's deep penetration there makes the city a harbinger of health care trends, experts say.

Physicians planning to close their practices in San Diego aren't just from the retirement set. Twenty-six percent of physicians age 36 to 45 and 29% of those age 45 to 55 said they would relocate, retire or change professions in the next five years.

The number of San Diego doctors willing to treat Medicare and Medicaid patients is also expected to drop, with 22% saying they'll leave Medicare within one to three years, while 26% plan to drop Medicaid.

"San Diego and the other major counties in California are firing the warning shot to the nation," said Rod Munoz, society president, in a statement. "The American health care system is on the verge of collapse."