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Medical school applications predicted to start rising again

With more students signing up to take the MCATs, the six-year decline in applicants may end.

By Myrle Croasdale, amednews staff. Nov. 18, 2002.

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During the economic boom of the '90s, the number of applicants to medical schools tumbled as young people were drawn to jobs in the high-tech industry.

Now, the tables have turned and experts are predicting an increase in applicants to U.S. medical schools, thanks, in part, to the misfortune that has hit the former applicant-stealing industry. If early indications hold, medical colleges could see applicants for 2003 jump 4% to 6% compared with last year, ending a six-year streak of shrinking numbers.

"It's speculative, but it's reasonable to attribute some of the [projected medical school applicant] turnaround to the business cycle," said Jordan J. Cohen, MD, president of the Assn. of American Medical Colleges. "A lot of students are finishing college, and they look around and see the economic winds are blowing harshly.

"That, and the negative effect of bashing of medicine in the early '90s is receding, I hope," he said. "Students are seeing medicine as an exciting career opportunity, again, and appropriately so."

Applications to U.S. medical schools for 2002 fell 3.9% from the previous year. However, the Medical College Admission Test program administered 57,573 examinations this year, an increase of 5.6% over last year.

In addition, applications processed to date through AAMC's American Medical College Application Service are up 6% compared with this time last year.

"With our nation facing new health challenges and a possible physician shortage, the apparent flagging interest in the medical profession, as reflected by the shrinking applicant pool over the last several years, has been cause for some concern," said Dr. Cohen. "These early projections for 2003, however, provide hope that this six-year decline may finally be over."

In 1996 almost 47,000 individuals applied to U.S. medical schools, the culmination of a build-up that began in 1989. Since then, total numbers have steadily dropped anywhere from 1,000 to 4,000 applicants each year. This year's applicant pool of 33,501 is the smallest in the last six. However, it is still larger than the 26,721 applicants in the 1988 pool.

A sharp decline in the number of men applying to medical schools, a trend that started in 1997, also continued in 2002. There were a total of 16,999 male applicants this year compared with 18,142 in 2001. Fewer females applied too, although the decline was less steep at 16,454 versus 16,717 in 2001.

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 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: 

Hitting bottom

The number of applicants to U.S. medical schools was down again in 2002, but officials are predicting a brighter 2003.

     Applicants   Change
     ----------   ------
1992   37,402       --
1993   42,806      14.4%
1994   45,360       6.0%
1995   46,586       2.7%
1996   46,965       0.8%
1997   43,016      -8.4%
1998   40,996      -4.7%
1999   38,443      -6.2%
2000   37,089      -3.5%
2001   34,859      -6.0%
2002   33,501      -3.9%

Source: AAMC data warehouse: applicant matriculant file, pre-2002 as of Oct. 24, 2001; 2002 as of Oct. 27

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