Now forecast is for shortage of physicians

The future situation may rival the 1960s, when a lack of doctors spurred major efforts to build new medical schools.

By Jay Greene, AMNews staff. Jan. 21, 2002.

If the pace of medical education remains unchanged, the United States soon will be facing a shortage of physicians that will become progressively more severe, leading to a deficit of 200,000 physicians by 2020, according to a study in the January/February Health Affairs.

Using a newly developed physician supply trend model, researchers said the data debunk predictions over the past 20 years that there would be a 15% to 30% surplus of specialty physicians by 2000. A surplus of physicians, previous studies warned, could increase health expenditures and have a negative impact on the economy.

"Clearly, none of those predictions came true," said Richard "Buz" Cooper, MD, a study co-author. "The question now is when the physician shortage becomes a political problem."

Historical data from the United States and other countries suggest that shortages become a political problem when the supply of doctors deviates by 10% or more from long-term economic trends, said Dr. Cooper, director of the Institute for Health Policy at the Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee. "We are about three or four years away from that point, but we are already seeing the early signs of shortages and of public unrest." Such signs include complaints about access from consumer groups and congressional hearings stimulated by angry patients and voters.

Dr. Cooper said previous studies had failed to accurately account for population growth, work-effort of physicians, contribution of services by nonphysicians and economic expansion. For example, studies reported in 1981 by the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee and repeated elsewhere incorrectly estimated a 270 million U.S. population in 2000. The latest census figures show 285 million. "The population estimate error accounts for approximately 25% of the physician surpluses that were previously predicted," the report said. "To place this into perspective, the total output of 10 to 12 medical schools would be required to service the population that was omitted from consideration by these earlier studies." [...]